I think everyone is to busy waiting for this new round of Apple vs. Microsoft to play out like it did in the 80s to notice that it’s happened. When Compaq (Microsoft) cloned the IBM PC (iPod) they went and got a licence for MS-DOS (MPEG-4/AAC) so they can be as much like the IBM PC (iPod) as possible. With the Zune Microsoft is trying to duplicate the iPod/iTS system right down to the formats used. Making them the first true cloner of the iPod/iTS system.

Microsoft won the PC war because the cloners came looking to them for software the same way they are now looking to MPEG LA for digital formats. They can talk about innovation all they want but they are a cloner now and need to support the same standard as the original. They are also showing their PlayForSure partners/competitors that AAC is not something that can be ignored. In a year all MP3 players will support AAC and it will be thanks to Microsoft and the Zune.

Using the same logic that a number of companies use in choosing not to support the Mac. Content producers will sooner or later start wondering why they should support WMA/WMV when every things supports MPEG-4/AAC. Even if they manage to get dissatisfied iTunes users to make the move. The only thing they will accomplish is showing users that DRM free AAC/MP3 is the best way for them to keep control of their music.

So it looks like things in their own way will play out a lot like they did in the 80s. Except that Apple made large amounts of money on the Mac and Microsoft will lose money on the Zune. Maybe Microsoft has some killer plan I can’t see. But I don’t think anyone will blame me for thinking that their long term “Zune plan” is to spend money till they get it right. The problem is every Zune device they sell is one more vote for MPEG-4 as the standard for digital media. Just like every IBM PC clone sold was a vote for MS-DOS as the OS standard.