“Imagine a world where every online store sells DRM-free music encoded in open licensable formats.”

-Steve Jobs

I have a question Mr. Jobs. In this world you are asking me to imagine, are you licensing the Windows Media formats from Microsoft? Is there any doubt as to what the answer to this question will be?

In a DRM-free world Windows Media formats are basically dead. Online stores locked out of the iPod because of FairPlay. Will not choose to lock themselves out by using only Windows Media if they use it at all. I think it’s obvious that the people at Microsoft know that. When the number one MP3 player will never support your format, Microsoft is left with a lot invested in something that won’t amount to much. The only way Microsoft can save its investment in Windows Media is to have a DRM Windows Media player that is a run away success. This is why Microsoft will not join with Apple in calling for a DRM-free world. They need DRM so they are going to fight for it.

As for Norway going after the iTS/iPod lock-in, I believe Jobs when he says Apple will be happy to give up DRM. What is more important to the iTS, the lock-in with iPod or shipping as part of iTunes with every iPod? I think the latter is the most important thing to the iTS success and Apple knows that. Sure they lose the lock-in, but they can live with out it and in doing so stick it to Microsoft.

Microsoft won the PC war because the cloners came looking to them for software the same way they are now looking to MPEG LA for digital formats. They can talk about innovation all they want but they are a cloner now and need to support the same standard as the original. They are also showing their PlayForSure partners/competitors that AAC is not something that can be ignored. In a year all MP3 players will support AAC and it will be thanks to Microsoft and the Zune.

Using the same logic that a number of companies use in choosing not to support the Mac. Content producers will sooner or later start wondering why they should support WMA/WMV when every things supports MPEG-4/AAC. Even if they manage to get dissatisfied iTunes users to make the move. The only thing they will accomplish is showing users that DRM free AAC/MP3 is the best way for them to keep control of their music.

So it looks like things in their own way will play out a lot like they did in the 80s. Except that Apple made large amounts of money on the Mac and Microsoft will lose money on the Zune. Maybe Microsoft has some killer plan I can’t see. But I don’t think anyone will blame me for thinking that their long term “Zune plan” is to spend money till they get it right. The problem is every Zune device they sell is one more vote for MPEG-4 as the standard for digital media. Just like every IBM PC clone sold was a vote for MS-DOS as the OS standard.

Microsoft’s move with the Zune has been something that in my opinion lacked a good explanation. Why start over from zero when PlayForSure is out there fighting it out? It looks like the answer is that PFS is so close to zero that they might as well start something new. In May an Ars Technica article stated the iTS had 61% with eMusic at 12%. USA Today in July had an article that gives 67% to the iTS and 11% to eMusic. It doesn’t look like most of the iTS growth came from eMusic. I’m sure the vast majority of eMusic users understand the benefit of it’s music being DRM free. Still at 88% I’m going to assume that the iTS is taking from everybody. So I’m going to guess that eMusic lost a couple more points. That leaves us with iTS at 88% plus eMusic at 9% with everyone else fighting over 1-3% in the U.S.

This also gives more weight to the idea that the way to compete with Apple and the iTS is not by selling DRM RIAA music. The iTS does that and does it well. The way to compete is to sale none DRM music that can play on the iPod. This is what eMusic is doing and they are doing very well compared to everyone else that’s competing with Apple. Not only is Apple in control but their nearest competitor is no threat in the DRM race. My ideas about RealNetworks are now all void because I just don’t see how they can make them self a player again.

The RIAA deserves the screwing that Steve Jobs will give them as the iTS increasingly becomes the only place people buy DRM music. They will either have to bend over and take it like the bastards they are. Or admit that DRM doesn’t work and kill it for good. The better eMusic does the harder a time the RIAA will have of arguing that the iTS is the only place they have to sell their music on line. It sweet justice that the RIAA hopes of a world where people had to buy new music when they bought a new player. Has back fired on them and they are waking up to a monster of their own making in Apple and the iTS.

Controlling the whole widget is only great if you can get people to buy your hardware. Something I suspect Microsoft will find out the hard way with Zune. If Glaser plays his cards right, RealNetworks can take the 10-20% of the DRM market that the iTMS doesn’t have. That might not be enough to make the boys at Microsoft happy. However given where RealNetworks is today they should be thankful if they get half of it.

Microsoft has handed RealNetworks the best argument they could ever hope for to get Creative, SanDisk, etc. to it’s side of the DRM fence. Where is Glaser’s proposal for a “tactical alliance” with PlayForSure partners. I’m sure he can come up with a good line about subsidising the Zune. Maybe a nice lie about Harmony being the only “open” choice in DRM. A few bloggers will call him out on it, but what does he care it’s do or die. Out side of a few comments he made on an earnings call, Glaser has stayed quiet. Maybe he learnt something from last time.

Microsoft’s move with the Zune should be an all or nothing bet, because RealNetworks should be able to take their hardware partners away. The possibility however of RealNetworks scooping up PlayForSure partners lands so low on the plausibility scale no one is talking about it. Did Microsoft go a head with the Zune, because they were reasonably sure their PlayForSure partners would be waiting for them if it failed? The collective wisdom appears to be that RealNetworks is irrelevant and Glaser isn’t doing much to dispel it.

Unless Apple screws up big time, the Zune in my opinion is the last hope for Glaser & Co. If they can’t get hardware partners now I don’t see how they ever will.

There is also another reason for my choice. Gruber doing this on this own makes it easier to dismiss him as some crazy Mac fan in denial. However if a number of people step up with $50 or $100 just to see something happen because they are curious. It becomes a lot harder for the people at SecureWorks to dismiss all of them. Anyone that has sent SecureWorks hate mail or worse are not allowed to take part.

Mayor said, “… you watch those ‘Get a Mac’ commercials enough, it eventually makes you want to stab one of those users in the eye with a lit cigarette or something”. That’s a lot of frustration to carry around and it could land him in jail if he doesn’t do something about it. I think for his own good he should take Gruber’s challenge. Getting a free MacBook for what I assume is no trouble at all should make him feel better. However it maybe a good idea for anyone meeting this guy to show up with safety glasses on.