“Imagine a world where every online store sells DRM-free music encoded in open licensable formats.”

-Steve Jobs

I have a question Mr. Jobs. In this world you are asking me to imagine, are you licensing the Windows Media formats from Microsoft? Is there any doubt as to what the answer to this question will be?

In a DRM-free world Windows Media formats are basically dead. Online stores locked out of the iPod because of FairPlay. Will not choose to lock themselves out by using only Windows Media if they use it at all. I think it’s obvious that the people at Microsoft know that. When the number one MP3 player will never support your format, Microsoft is left with a lot invested in something that won’t amount to much. The only way Microsoft can save its investment in Windows Media is to have a DRM Windows Media player that is a run away success. This is why Microsoft will not join with Apple in calling for a DRM-free world. They need DRM so they are going to fight for it.

As for Norway going after the iTS/iPod lock-in, I believe Jobs when he says Apple will be happy to give up DRM. What is more important to the iTS, the lock-in with iPod or shipping as part of iTunes with every iPod? I think the latter is the most important thing to the iTS success and Apple knows that. Sure they lose the lock-in, but they can live with out it and in doing so stick it to Microsoft.

I think everyone is to busy waiting for this new round of Apple vs. Microsoft to play out like it did in the 80s to notice that it’s happened. When Compaq (Microsoft) cloned the IBM PC (iPod) they went and got a licence for MS-DOS (MPEG-4/AAC) so they can be as much like the IBM PC (iPod) as possible. With the Zune Microsoft is trying to duplicate the iPod/iTS system right down to the formats used. Making them the first true cloner of the iPod/iTS system.

Microsoft won the PC war because the cloners came looking to them for software the same way they are now looking to MPEG LA for digital formats. They can talk about innovation all they want but they are a cloner now and need to support the same standard as the original. They are also showing their PlayForSure partners/competitors that AAC is not something that can be ignored. In a year all MP3 players will support AAC and it will be thanks to Microsoft and the Zune.

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Napster has put it self up for sale. Not sure why anyone would buy them all they have is a name and it’s clearly not helping them. When you look at the market share of the iTS and eMusic, they are not a big player in the download market. They got subscriptions which has been the next big thing in music for a few years now. To bad for them most music buyers don’t see the point of renting their music. Napster for sale sign is just more proof that DRM RIAA music is not the way to compete with iPod/iTS.

Putting a side the fact that everyone spins statistics in the best way for them. Steve Jobs announcement today about the iTunes Store having 88% of the legal music market. Coupled with the knowledge that in July that eMusic was claiming to have 11% of that market. Leads me to the obvious conclusion that Microsoft’s music strategy to this point has been a complete and total failure.

Microsoft’s move with the Zune has been something that in my opinion lacked a good explanation. Why start over from zero when PlayForSure is out there fighting it out? It looks like the answer is that PFS is so close to zero that they might as well start something new. In May an Ars Technica article stated the iTS had 61% with eMusic at 12%. USA Today in July had an article that gives 67% to the iTS and 11% to eMusic. It doesn’t look like most of the iTS growth came from eMusic. I’m sure the vast majority of eMusic users understand the benefit of it’s music being DRM free. Still at 88% I’m going to assume that the iTS is taking from everybody. So I’m going to guess that eMusic lost a couple more points. That leaves us with iTS at 88% plus eMusic at 9% with everyone else fighting over 1-3% in the U.S.

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I think RealNetworks is a company that has spent a lot of its time being irrelevant? QuickTime got their first and Microsoft was quick to follow. Then mp3s and p2p came along and made everyone irrelevant for a time. The iPod/iTMS showed that there could be a market for DRM music. RealNetworks found it self locked out like everyone else. Zune is a gift from whatever god Rob Glaser believes in.

Controlling the whole widget is only great if you can get people to buy your hardware. Something I suspect Microsoft will find out the hard way with Zune. If Glaser plays his cards right, RealNetworks can take the 10-20% of the DRM market that the iTMS doesn’t have. That might not be enough to make the boys at Microsoft happy. However given where RealNetworks is today they should be thankful if they get half of it.

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